With over two-thirds of the Premier League season gone, the title, top four, and relegation races could go down to the wire. Arsenal leads title rivals Manchester City by two points heading into their midweek match against Everton. City won comfortably at Bournemouth after Arsenal put Leicester at bay over the weekend to stay on top. Manchester United is still in contention, and numerous teams, including Newcastle, who lost the Carabao Cup final on Sunday, are fighting for fourth.
Final Premier League table and winners were simulated 800 times
With just four points separating 13th and 19th, numerous teams are still in danger of relegation. With the current drama, @UnderThePitch simulated the 20 Premier League teams’ anticipated final positions. They simulated the remaining league games 800 times to find the most likely results and finishing positions. No team has a better than 60% chance of finishing in any given position with two-thirds of the games left to play and a tight fight at the top.
Arsenal and Manchester City’s predicted places have the highest simulation probability. Arsenal has a 53.44% chance of winning the league and 39.44% of finishing second. Manchester City has 44.15% and 47.33%. Manchester United’s form during the World Cup has moved them closer to the top two, yet they have a 2.42% chance of winning it all. Recent form has ensured a top-four finish, with a third (51.91%) the most likely.
These simulations suggest a heated fight for the final Champions League slot with three of the top four spots locked up. Last season top four could lose two or three players. Newcastle United was third as recently as January 21, but their odds of a top-four finish are little over one in three (1.15% second, 10.43% third, 23.16% fourth).
Tottenham have a 31.81% chance of replicating their fourth-place result from last season, while Antonio Conte’s team may still finish third (18.96%) or second (1.27%). Liverpool (7.51% combined) might finish second, third, or fourth, along with Brighton (11.71%), Brentford (4.96%), Fulham (2.67%), and Aston Villa (0.38%). Chelsea’s Sunday loss to Spurs appears to have ended their modest Champions League chances.
