Birmingham to Stun Newcastle?

After reviewing the weekend’s FA Cup fourth-round action, our betting expert Jones Knows predicts Birmingham’s win over Newcastle.

Some may believe Newcastle’s momentum to reach the Carabao Cup final on Wednesday night. First, it is impossible to quantify, thus it should be ignored when wagering, and there is evidence that making a cup final can hurt your league form.

In 24 games, the clubs lost 12, drew 5, and won 7. There is evidence that making a cup final does not boost momentum in the games preceding the big day. After winning the Carabao Cup semi-final in 2023, Newcastle fell to West Ham, Bournemouth, and Liverpool.

Birmingham are dominating League One with 2.33 points per game. This is only surpassed by Liverpool (2.38) in the top four English divisions. After beating Stevenage in the midweek Vertu Trophy, they have gone 18 games unbeaten in all competitions since losing to Shrewsbury on November 23. Their last 13 league matches have seen nine clean sheets and four goals.

A football betting strategy that pays off is backing a club to tighten up defensively after a loss. Brighton fit the criteria after their 7-0 drubbing against Nottingham Forest, when they failed to defend.